Flu News Day, 3/15/2023

A recent study has created a computational model for predicting influenza pandemic outcomes based on the first wave of novel influenza viruses. The study utilizes data collected from 10 US states representing all regions of the country, during the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The projection generated from this study takes the understanding of influenza seasonality one step further by showing that states with relatively high levels of influenza infection during the first “spring” wave will subsequently have high rates during the second “fall” wave. Because of this, the study asserts that smaller spring waves can be used as a warning signal of emerging influenza pandemics. Researchers suggest that the model should be used to guide preventative policy measures such as preemptive school closures in advance of the fall wave of infections. You can read more about this predictive model by Haw et al. and its potential applications here.

The CDC has released its interim estimates and report of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness for the October 2022- February 2023 wave. The largest takeaway from the data is that the seasonal vaccine was shown to be 71% effective at preventing symptomatic influenza A in children. It was also 54% effective at preventing cases of influenza A that required medical attention in people over 65. According to the CDC, this data shows that the 2022-2023 seasonal vaccine was very effective at preventing severe illness against influenza H3N2, which was the most prominent strain of influenza this season. Regardless of this success, decreased vaccination rates country-wide and difficulty in predicting seasonal influenza strains demonstrate a need for influenza vaccine innovation. This includes the ongoing work to develop next-generation, broadly protective universal influenza vaccines. Read more about this preliminary data here.

The CDC has released its interim estimates and report of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness for the October 2022- February 2023 wave. The largest takeaway from the data is that the seasonal vaccine was shown to be 71% effective at preventing symptomatic influenza A in children. It was also 54% effective at preventing cases of influenza A that required medical attention in people over 65. According to the CDC, this data shows that the 2022-2023 seasonal vaccine was very effective at preventing severe illness against influenza H3N2, which was the most prominent strain of influenza this season. Regardless of this success, decreased vaccination rates country-wide and difficulty in predicting seasonal influenza strains demonstrate a need for influenza vaccine innovation. This includes the ongoing work to develop next-generation, broadly protective universal influenza vaccines. Read more about this preliminary data here.

The latest installment of the WHO Information Networks on Epidemics (Epi-WIN) series, a tool designed to help leaders use scientific information to create policy, focuses on the science of influenza vaccines. Two sessions were included in the webinar. The first session by Dr. David Wentworth from the USA CDC presented the process of selecting and predicting the seasonal influenza vaccine. Dr. Wentworth emphasized the reliance on global surveillance tools such as the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) in determining the most prominent influenza strain of the season. The second session by Dr. Richard Webby from the WHO Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals outlined the difference in the process of creating vaccines that are effective for zoonotic infections such as H5N1. Dr. Webby similarly emphasized the importance of surveillance and said that early identification can jump start influenza preparedness. Both experts stressed the importance of looking to the new generation of influenza vaccines while developing strategies for influenza pandemics. Watch the full webinar here.

On March 16th, the Influenzer Initiative is hosting a live-streamed webinar!

A “game-changing” Universal Influenza Vaccine (UIV) candidate arrives. What’s next? In this installment of the Flu Vaccine Forum webinar series, experts Dr. Diane Post (Chief, Viral Respiratory Diseases Section, DMID/NIAID/NIH), Dr. Scott Hensley (Professor of Microbiology at the University of Pennsylvania and Director of Penn-CEIRR), and Dr. Norman Baylor (Trustee, Sabin Vaccine Institute and Former Director of FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review) will discuss the roadblocks that a promising preclinical candidate faces on its long journey to the marketplace and explore strategies for overcoming them.

Livestreamed on YouTube, the webinar will feature a lively discussion and a question-and-answer session.